一 | JERUSALEM -- It's a far cry from the usual hustle and bustle, so typical of Jerusalem's Old City.The steps of the Damascus Gate have been cleared out. Gone are the fruit and sumac vendors. And inside the Old City: rows and rows of shops have shut down."This is the worst days we've ever seen in our lives. Even when the corona[virus] was here it was better than this," said Adnan Jaffa, who runs the Jaffar Sweets shop. "Because of the war ... the situation. In five minutes we're going to close because there is nothing to do."For those who know the Old City, it's an eerie place to be. Even the Church of the Holy Sepulchre -- where Christ is believed to have been buried and resurrected -- was empty on Sunday but for a handful of worshippers. It felt like we were being given a private tour of one of the world's holiest and most visited sites.Ehab Barakat, who was cycling through the deserted Old City, was one of the few customers out there on the city's streets.Asked about the increasing tensions, he said: "We hope it will be quiet."He added, "This is the time to be united. One."But the latest cycle of violence has come has no surprise, he said."The new government of Israel … you would be stupid if you would not guess what is going to happen. And we are not stupid. We were just waiting for the time.""The people get so tied … like a balloon. With a lot of air inside. And then it will…"His English may have failed him -- but it seemed clear what he meant.Israeli police now stand at the entrance to the Damascus Gate, occasionally searching young men. Orthodox Jews occasionally wander through the Old City to worship at the Western Wall. But there is none of the fervour which people associate with Jerusalem. It's been replaced by a strange quiet.In the words of Abushadi Sinjlawi, another shopkeeper we found closing early for the day, "The city is under lockdown."But away from the eerie quiet and melancholy atmosphere in the Old City, the situation is tense. Jerusalem is said to be the most heavily policed city in the country, and that will likely remain the case as the war in the south rages on.Checkpoints have been set up across East Jerusalem. And videos are spreading online appearing to show the harassment of Palestinians at the hands of the police. Cars are being stopped and searched. There are videos of apparent police beatings. In sporadic, individual incidents where locals have clashed with police, the response appears to have been brute force.Already at least 50 Palestinians have been killed in East Jerusalem and the West Bank since the war broke out -- that's more than the highest ever monthly total since the UN began keeping records in 2005.。 据日本共同社16日报道，日本政府地震调查小组15日警告称，未来三十年内南海海槽发生“特大地震”（即8级及以上）的概率已经提升至80%。其中，北海道的根室市沿岸及宫城县沿岸发生“特大地震”的可能性更高。这是日本时隔不到半年再发“特大地震”警告。去年8月，日本宫崎县附近海域发生7.1级地震后，由于担心影响附近的南海海槽，日本气象厅发布了有史以来的首个巨大地震警报。
二 | 专家团队预计，若日本南海海槽再发生大地震，导致的伤亡人数最高将超过30万。（报道链接：日本首次发布“巨大地震警报”，首相取消外访行程）去年8月，宫崎县附近海域发生7.1级地震后，一处坍塌的房屋 日本地震专家每年一月都会重新计算发生特大地震的概率，自2018年至今，这一概率一直维持在70%-80%之间。据《朝日新闻》报道，南海海槽发生“特大地震”的概率以每年不到1%的幅度逐年递增，今年调查小组推算出的概率为75%-82%，四舍五入后得出了“80%”这个数字。
三 | 日本政府地震调查小组组长平田直志（音译）在新闻发布会上解释称，这一概率意味着该国任何时候发生地震都不足为奇，“我们希望民众能时刻准备好。”平田直志称，自2024年1月日本能登半岛发生6.0级地震以来，该国已经发生过多次震级在6级以上的地震。“大家需要提高警惕，地壳活动可能将持续活跃一段时间。”来自日本政府地震调查研究推进本部的数据显示，过去1400年间，南海海槽每隔100到200年就会发生一次“特大地震”，最近一次发生在1946年，当时整个日本都有震感。不过，也有地震学家对“日本政府地震调查小组定期发布地震概率预测”的做法表示反对。“地震不会按照周期性发生，地震的发生是不可预测的。”东京大学名誉教授、地震学家罗伯特·盖勒批评称，这种根据过往地震频率预测未来地震的做法毫无意义。红星新闻记者 黎谨睿编辑 杨珒 责编 魏孔明（下载红星新闻，报料有奖！）。
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